Our geopolitical and economic predictions would not therefore more valuable than that of the ancient sibyls, practicing divination enigmatic than those of Roman soothsayers opening the liver of poultry? This is the iconoclastic thesis defended Ariel Colonomos, countdown apparent serious political science and financial technology ... In the Enlightenment tradition of Fontenelle and his History of the oracles at the edge of scientific expertise, literature and sociology, essayist dusts our preconceptions. Not without the need to remain faithful to the art of good government.
If we ensure that knowledge of history can not repeat the mistakes of the past, knowledge of the future might allow immediate access to the truth to come. And thus prepare, as with the telescope of Galileo, this ancestor observation satellites, which opens the book, seem to create a quasi demiurgic gesture, insurance consequences and incalculable political and financial profits. And all civilizations have used divination, the tarot, horoscopes, spoon the oracle words and chance, including heads of state, the Roman emperors until President Mitterrand who consulted Madame Soleil! Ridicule does not kill, but the unexpected is capable.
"Yesterday, they were courtiers spoon and men of God," today they are think tanks and rating agencies, says Ariel Colonomos. All these oracles are subject to the "epistemic conformity of temporality," not to mention "the prevailing view [which] is a magnet." Their future statement is between chaos totalitarianism spoon of terrorism, and liberal democracy, between "court of history" and "standard" spoon between government reforms and burdens between stability and change or break. Because "the future is essentially a language that serves the political and strategic communication" blackout themes that are beyond "the spoon truth of the time." However, it is well below the surprises of the future and governed by backward-looking visions. In other words, "We are a guard equipped with blinkers and a mirror, running after a suspect (the future) that is not yet back into the house (the present). "
Our scientists centuries rid of superstitions, believed. Our Leviathans States, our multinational and individual companies must anticipate and even postulate scenarios worthy of dystopia spoon and science fiction. Here they are looking their consulting firms, yet "inseparable from their community," victims of their "endogamy" university, their licensed specialists, as Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock [1]. Rigor then seems to go. More experienced analysts and forecasters, noting the countries in the world in terms of human development, growth, spoon corruption, and economic freedom of the press, so financial reliability are obviously more rational than mages and priests of Antiquity. Although ...
There is a market in this prédictologie spoon or a fool's bargain. Serve worries, great fears, nuclear or ecological, the soothing spoon expectations and narcissistic spoon desires of voters, the crowds, but also of power, political, industrial and media, spoon implies a sense of serious unassailable, charisma, a breastplate of puffery well inflated, either from enlightened spoon individuals or groups of which did not hesitate to name "Delphi". We must at all costs manage uncertainties and risks. In order to feed the economic strategies, prospects influence, preventive wars and their shapes gestation (such as drones and robots), peaceful diplomacy, but also defuse bubbles and corporate insolvency and states ... But among the "competition of ideas" settles "a remarkable conformity to an average" or a "self-fulfilling prophecy." What castrate the future its possible, though there is little catch.
Why do we predicted a future? Because he must reassure policymakers and opinion, between wisdom and irrationality of crowds, because it must strengthen our conservatism, including whether induced changes. Firstly because fear is a bad counselor and could destabilize markets and geopolitical chessboard squares, and secondly, because we predict that, depending on what we know.
And rating agencies, although spoon "oligopoly" that are not in the service of state bureaucracies, ensure the future finances of states, banks and investment
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